Dan Roth  0:01  
Coming up on episode 185 of wheel bearings Nilay Patel from the verge joins us to talk tech, EVs, 5g, Fox Body Mustangs, Raptors, and more. We're driving the 2021 Toyota Tundra trail edition and getting stuck in the Ford Bronco sport. And we finish up with a listener submission comparing the Alfa Romeo Giulia and Genesis g 70. That's all ahead on episode 185 of wheel bearings.

Hi, I'm Dan Roth. 

Sam Abuelsamid  0:43  
And I'm Sam Abuelsamid from guidehouse insights. And Rebecca is off dealing with personal family stuff today. So she's not with us. But later on in the show, we will have special guest, Nilay Patel, the editor in chief of the verge. 

Dan Roth  0:59  
Alright, well, let's get to it. Let's talk about what we're driving. You have the 2020 Ford Bronco sport. Badlands. So did you get stopped around? This is the same question. I asked Rebecca, like, Did people stop you and want to talk about your Bronco? And you're like, Well, actually, it's not the bronco 

Sam Abuelsamid  1:16  
actually around here? Not so much. Because mainly because there's actually a lot of these things around Southeast Michigan. 

Dan Roth  1:24  
Yeah, I mean, you have to be like just west of Dearborn. So while everybody knows 

Sam Abuelsamid  1:28  
true, but, you know, I think I think these these things are actually selling really well. Because I mean, I've been looking, you know, over the last six, eight weeks, I guess, really the last six weeks, I've been seeing a lot of them popping up everywhere. And they're not templates. So you know, the man that's manufacturer plates. So you know, I think it's actually the people are buying a lot of these things. I think they're selling really surprisingly well. And, you know, obviously, that's a good thing for Ford. And, you know, I first drove the the bronco sport, what, back in October, they had had the media drive back in October. And, you know, at that time, you know, we got a chance to drive it for, you know, a couple of hours, you know, we had a couple of hours on the road, and then did some off road stuff with it at the Hollyoaks RV Park, which is about an hour north of Detroit. And,

Dan Roth  41:17  
we're joined by Nilay Patel, you're from the verge i think is the flagship, but you're also on decoder as well, podcasts and various other things. where can our listeners find you if they're curious if they don't already know? 

Nilay Patel  41:30  
Yeah, so I'm the editor in chief of the verge, which is a fun job in that I just watch other smart people write things for the site. And

Dan Roth  57:36  
we jumped right into the deep end, but let's back up just a little bit. So what's what's driving look like for Nilay Patel? Like, what? How did you come to be sort of an automotive enthusiast? Let's give people a little background about sort of, you know, other than the fact that you're a tech journalist, like how do you how do you come to cards? Oh, sure. Um, you know, I, I was always a car person. I think my older cousins were all card nerds when we were growing up, and I just sort of inherited that from them.

Sam Abuelsamid  2:21  
you know, unlike the the bronco sport that Rebecca and I think Nicole had one as well, that we talked about a couple of weeks ago, they both had the 1.5 liter turbo, which is the base engine. So that's, that's a three cylinder turbocharged engine. It's about 180 horsepower, you know, and it's it's good, you know, it's, but you know, it doesn't, it doesn't feel, you know, as strong as the optional two liter engine, which is what was in the one I had, I had the Badlands, which is the the top of the most expensive of the mainstream Bronco sports. There's also a launch edition, which is limited availability, I think they might actually already be sold out of those. But so the one I had was in a lovely cyber orange color, which, you know, when I saw this, yes, the world needs more vehicles and these bold colors

Dan Roth  3:18  
we do I agree with that, you know, back in the 50s and 60s, chemistry was giving us all of these great colors that were just completely torching the environment, but man was sick, cool to look at. We need more of that stuff, you know, just different, different different hues, because everything these days on lots is like white, black or silver.

Sam Abuelsamid  3:38  
Yeah, or you know, that usually, you know, often oftentimes vehicles will have like three or four different shades of silver or gray that you can get

Dan Roth  3:46  
why they're all named something ridiculous.

Sam Abuelsamid  3:48  
Yeah. And then they'll have maybe one red, or maybe one blue, you know, and oftentimes the blues are pale blues, but at any rate, they have they have a couple of nice bold colors available in the bronco sport they have a cool red, cyber orange. And you know then there's a whole bunch of whites and grays and black.

Dan Roth  4:08  
I want cars I want car lots to look like you spilled a bunch of spree candy all over the plane.

Sam Abuelsamid  4:12  
Yeah, exactly.

Dan Roth  4:13  
It's just nice and bright. So

Sam Abuelsamid  4:15  
cyber orange probably isn't for everybody but I liked it. I enjoyed it. It was fun to have something different. And you know the Broncos sport it's they're all two tone. So you know black roof and pillars and then the gray lower body this is the the rug the compact rugged off rotor that that Ford talked about a couple of years ago for for seemed like forever before they finally launched it. And you know it's got a lot of the same styling cues is the big Bronco that is I guess supposed to start production any in the next couple of weeks I believe the Wayne Michigan assembly plant but unlike the big Bronco, you know this one doesn't have removable doors. it you know it doesn't have You know, as big an accessory catalog, but it actually does have a lot of accessories. One thing that's separates this from an escape because it shares this basic architecture with the escape, but it's actually shorter wheelbase and even shorter overhangs,

Dan Roth  5:13  
so that looks a lot better too. Yeah, I mean, I like the way the escape looks, but it's awful. It's like soft and inoffensive, or the Broncos a lot more bold.

Sam Abuelsamid  5:22  
Yeah, well, I mean, this escape has gone more in the direction of being a tall car. Yeah, rather than an off road SUV so that they made these these two vehicles more focused on their, their target markets. So you know, the Broncos shorter, a few inches shorter overall, you know, steeper approach and departure angles for an off roader that a little more ground clearance. And we've got the same power trains 1.5 liter and the two liter EcoBoost engines, the two liters what was in the one I had 250 horsepower. But where they really differ is in the drive train. So the escapes are available in front wheel drive, or all wheel drive. And they all wheel drive. As you know, it's defaults to front drive. And when the front wheels are slipping, you can get about 10 to 15% of the torque sent to the rear axle to give you a little more traction in slippery weather conditions. The Bronco sport on the other hand is four wheel drive. So it's and it only comes in four wheel drive, there's no two wheel drive, or front wheel drive, Bronco sport, it's only four wheel drive. And, you know, so it splits the torque 5050, front and rear. It's got locking center, diff, electronic locking rear axle as well, which can be great in those offroad conditions. But the important thing to keep in mind with any kind of all wheel drive or four wheel drive vehicle is as good as the drive train might be. And you know, as capable as it might be. Ultimately, it all comes down to that interface between the rubber and the road or absence of road.

Dan Roth  7:01  
Did we tell the story last week? No, I

Sam Abuelsamid  7:04  
don't think we did. We did yeah, we talked about it. Yeah, I'm not gonna go into details of you know, exactly what happened. But suffice to say that I ended up in some in some deep snow, I made a bad decision about moving around another vehicle and ended up in some deep snow, you know, on a bit of a slope. And, you know, the vehicle is very stable, you know, there's no threat of it tipping over or anything like that. But, you know, there's about eight inches of snow or so. And even though the the bronco sport, you know, comes with these Falcon wildpeak offroad are all terrain tires, you know, there still limits, you know, when you're in deep, you know, kind of wet slushy snow, you know, the temperature was just just above freezing actually. And, you know, even with, I think it's just just shy of eight inches of ground clearance and this thing, you know, when you're bottomed out those tires, especially if you're trying to go up a slope, they just can't get enough grip to pull you up. And so, you know, ended up needing a little bit of assistance. Fortunately, the bronco sport, you know, has toe hooks standard on there on the front. And I think on the rear as well. You know, you know, driving it around previously, you know, after we had had some snow, you know, on level ground on some snow covered roads that hadn't been plowed yet it was great, very, very capable feels, it was really solid and stable. But, you know, trying to get up trying to climb up a slope through some heavy wet snow, where there just isn't traction, even with you know, the center diff and the rear axle locked. You know, instead of having instead of sitting there spinning the front wheels, you're just sitting there spinning all four wheels,

Dan Roth  8:51  
or none. It's been knowing like, I was going to ask you like, what did the stability and traction control actually let you do? Or did it just like you

Sam Abuelsamid  8:58  
can check the braking, you can turn off the traction control completely. Yeah, I mean, it's the bronco sport has what they call goat modes, you know, go over any terrain modes,

Dan Roth  9:07  
apparently not.

Sam Abuelsamid  9:09  
Well go over any terrain where you went over any

Dan Roth  9:12  
service didn't necessarily get through. Yeah.

Sam Abuelsamid  9:17  
Yeah, and, you know, I mean, that the limiting factor there was the tires.

Dan Roth  9:20  
Yeah. On winter tires, I'm sure you would have no problem.

Sam Abuelsamid  9:23  
Yeah. You know, so it's, you know, again, it's we've talked about this you know, many times before, you know that the difference that winter tires can make or having the right tires for the situation that you're driving it is really crucial that you know, and that was the limiting factor here. I mean, in everything else, I've driven it in you know, when we were at the off road Park last last fall, you know, going up 20% or 20 degree hills, you know, up and down 20 degree hills, going over boulders and, and logs and all kinds of other stuff. It was dry dirt or even through you know, through stream, you know, going through a creek or pond, you know, it's got I think 29 inches of water fording capability. So that's you know, you can do you can go a lot of places with this, but you know, then this is why they have the bronco family now you've got the bronco sport and and then the big Bronco that's coming the big Bronco is the one that's really you know that's the one that goes up against the Wrangler that that thing is supposed to be able to go pretty much anywhere. The Bronco sport is more the the lifestyle off road vehicle This is the one that takes you to the trailhead. You know, you take your bikes out and go. But you know, go like mountain biking, or you know, go camping and things like that. So it's not the ultimate offroader. But it is it is remarkably capable, but it does have like, but even something like the big Bronco is going to have its limits, there's places it's not going to be able to go. And you know, the limits of the bronco sport are somewhat less than that. So you know, but within within, you know, as long as you're aware of those limits, and try not to exceed them, then, you know, it's it's a lot of fun to drive, it drives really well the driving dynamics are really good. You know, the, you know, the interior differs, you know, it's, it's completely different from an escape, you know, you look at it from the outside or from the inside, you are not going to mistake these two vehicles for sharing a platform architecture they are, they look completely different. There's very few shared components, you know, inside the bronco sport, there's more hard plastics, you know, which, you know, it's done that way for a reason, you know, to make it easier to clean, you know, because, you know, if you're taking this thing on adventures, you know, you're more likely to, you know, be tracking dirt in and out of this thing or have dust in it, you know, be able to just wipe it down. It's really nice in that way. The Bronco sport is a couple inches taller than the escape, you know, has more room between the floor and the roof on the inside. And talked about for one of the accessories that they're offering is a Yakima bike rack that goes actually inside. And the reason why they made it taller and did the step two roof was so you could actually fit two mountain bikes inside and lock them away. You know, one of the other nice features they have, you know, when you open the tailgate, there's a couple of flood lamps, you know, in the in the tailgate, you know, so you know, campsite, you know, you can turn on the sled lamp,

Dan Roth  12:18  
oh my God above

Sam Abuelsamid  12:20  
my Yeah, even though they're nice, they're facing down. So when you open the tailgate, they're facing down, and they'll illuminate you know, about 100 square foot area or so.

Dan Roth  12:28  
Now, I would like when, so whoever is listening from Ford, please send us more.

Sam Abuelsamid  12:34  
I'm sure. I'm sure you'll get them in your fleet soon.

Dan Roth  12:36  
Yeah, I think you're probably already in the fleet that just worked our way through.

Sam Abuelsamid  12:38  
And then the, you know, that also bring back the, the separate tailgate glass so you can leave the main tailgate the battle closed, and just flip up the glass. You know, if you've got a surfboard or something you want to hang out the back. So a lot of a lot of cool detail touches, you know, it's, it's a it's a fun vehicle to drive. It's, you know, it's it's fairly reasonably priced price starts around 26,000 the one I had the Badlands, you know, that had most of the options on there was about 36 little over 36,000 delivered one interesting detail. When you, you know, when you if you go to the building price option, you'll find, you know, the standard set of wheels, you know, there's two sets of 17 inch wheels that you can get on the Badlands. The standard set, you know, are these split, like these five y spoke wheels, they're attractive wheels, but you know, they look more like sporty or wheels. And then there's a set of wheels that look like traditional steel wheels, you know, that they've got, you know, holes all you know, punched all you know, that's like 1010 holes around it, you know, you look at them, you know, they're they're painted dark gray, they look like steelies and, you know, they're pretty cool looking. They're actually aluminum wheels, even though they look like steelies and they're actually an $800 option above the base wheels.

Dan Roth  13:56  
Well, why didn't they just make steel wheels? If that's the look they're going for? Is it like a weight thing? Or,

you know, weight economy? I

Sam Abuelsamid  14:02  
don't know, I think I think is just you know, to give that look on the bronco there are actually steel wheels available on the Bronco, but not on the bronco sport. And you know, with the the 250 horsepower two liter, you know, that's got more than enough performance, you know, it's this thing's plenty quick. So it's it's a fun vehicle to drive, you know, if you're looking for something that is more capable than a, you know, than a traditional crossover compact crossover, you know, and has a distinct unique look at it look to it that you know, probably the closest thing It looks like you know, is a Landrover defender, but it's you know, it's quite a bit cheaper than a defender, you know, and the kind of the direct competitor to this would be the Jeep Compass Trailhawk you know, it's almost exactly the same footprint you know, same length and wheelbase and everything pretty much as the as the compass. The the distinction between the two is that the the compass You know, has kind of that lower profile the way the body design is the body shape. It's got a lower profile lower roofline. So you can't you won't have as much room inside as what you get in the bronco. So you can't do things like story bikes inside the cabin of the vehicle. But now it's it's fun. I enjoyed it a lot.

Dan Roth  15:19  
Yeah, well, it's this. This thing I think we're seeing a lot of in the automotive world is the vehicle itself matters a little less than the way they've dressed it up. because like you said, it's the escape and escape is good to drive. I liked the escape the last time I had one, which was a while ago now. But it was powerful. It was comfortable, it rode well, had good chassis discipline, all of those things transfer to the bronco sport, they're tweaked a little bit because the vehicles mission is slightly different its image is slightly different. But what you're doing with the bronco sport is you're packaging it in a way that just sort of it surprises it delights the the customer it makes them feel like this thing is really special even though it's it's on essentially parts bin components. Not saying that the parts bin is bad if they're good components use them. Like so to me, the Curiosity is just to see all of the enthusiasm for the bronco sport when you were over here saying like, it's really just an escape, but it's it's a cool escape, right? Like, it's that, to me has been fascinating to watch just how they took what they had repackaged it, and put it out there. And it's, it's been so popular, apparently, if it's if you're seeing a lot of them on the road, but it's also gotten a lot of attention, which was what I guess was kind of the goal is sort of the bronco sport creates a stair step for the actual Bronco to climb up on. Because they're not gonna make the same volume with the bronco. It's just it's more expensive, it's more more purpose built. It's not supposed to have that kind of volume. So for it's gonna print money with these, I hope. I think so

Sam Abuelsamid  17:06  
i think i think it's gonna be a big success for them. And to what you said, Yeah, I mean, there's a lot a lot of the underpinnings that are shared, but there's also a lot that's unique. And this is kind of a fault for it's followed a similar model over the last six, seven years now with Lincoln as well. You know, Lincoln's share a lot under the skin with Ford's, but, you know, they have visually separated them from corresponding Ford vehicles and added enough unique things like you know, take the aviator and explorer, you know, The Aviator explorer share basic architecture. But, you know, there's powertrain options in The Aviator that aren't available and explore, they look completely different inside and out. And even, you know, in the case of The Aviator, it even has a completely different front suspension from the Explorer, the Explorer has struck front suspension, the upper and lower control arms on The Aviator. So, yeah, they've Ford's been really smart about, you know, taking the parts using using the parts were sharing parts where it makes sense, and adding enough distinction between them to really separate it. So it's not just bad engineering. Yeah, I mean, in this case, you know, the four wheel drive versus the all wheel drive is a really important distinction. You know, you can go a lot of places within the bronco sport, you can't live in it with an escape. So I think I think this is a smart approach.

Dan Roth  18:33  
Yeah, I mean, I think the market is backing you up on that so nobody cares about the greasy parts. So I had the 2020 Toyota Tundra xR five trail edition so the trail edition is new for 2020 or 20. Is Hang on, hang on. I got the sticker here. I actually had a 21 it's 2021 the trial edition is new. It basically is an appearance package that adds some different bits and pieces here and there. So it's based on the XR five crew Max and has the SRF upgrade package has a bigger fuel tank there's front bucket seats with some power lumbar and stuff. It's it's updated a little bit the XR five is the first step off the base model, tundra, which I think is SSR. I forget off the top of my head, but you know has dark yellow wheels. It has the grill from the 1794 edition. So it looks a little different. The one that I have is in a pretty spiffy color called cement, which I think is also new for for 21 for this edition, just just out of curiosity, would

Sam Abuelsamid  19:49  
that be a shade of gray?

Dan Roth  19:51  
Yeah, yes it is. It's almost like bluish gray though. Okay. In the tundra is never been a great looking truck, but it looks good here. It's, it's not. So here's the thing with the tundra if you were going to make like a Back to the Future for the tundra is your time machine. But your movie wouldn't actually be all that exciting because all you really have to do is get in. You mean you don't go back that far, you go back like 15 years. And as a bonus, you get early 70s fuel economy out of it. But, you know, there's nothing actually wrong with the tundra. And there's quite a bit. That's right. It's got character. Now, I think and but I have a theory about that. And I named the theory, entropy resistant personality development. And the hypothesis is that the longer an automaker keeps a model in production without major changes, the more comfortable that model gets in its own skin. So it matures it stops running the rat race gets kind of

Sam Abuelsamid  21:01  
like an air cooled beetle, or Yeah, it's a transitional.

Dan Roth  21:05  
Right, exactly, it gets confident in its abilities kind of laughs off its limitations, which clearly don't matter as much as advertising copy wants you to believe anyway. And so, you know, those those limitations can also become personality quirks, like you mentioned with the beetle. So, the this is clearly anthropomorphizing the tundra quite a bit, probably midlife projection, by me. But you know, the tundra is a good truck, it's just not a modern truck. And you know, modern trucks have done two things though, they've run up the numbers, so lots of horsepower, lots of towing capacity. They've also become luxury cars. And the tundra hasn't really done either of those and by not doing those it hasn't lost the truck plot like some of the more modern trucks you could accuse them of. They haven't really lost it but they've kind of buried it you know, the things we talked about with modern trucks. The numbers is sort of like a given now and the truck Enos is sort of a given we talk about all of the the luxury car features maybe that's that's us, but those are the things that they put in there to get us talking. So those extra chapters are not part of the Tundra's appendix it's it's a V eight, it's got manual four wheel drive, six speed auto, the cabin is relaxed fit. It's you know, there's only a few choices and cab size and bed length. I think there's like two you can get the the crew Max is what this one is. And then there's I think there's the shorter as a crew Max and supercar I forget Anyway, there's not that many choices, but the tundra, but the space is great. It's always been roomy. It's also been kind of underwhelming in terms of materials, which, you know, even the nice ones the 1794 edition has, as nice as they can make it. This one's not quite that nice. This has cloth seats with accent stitching and stuff. And the plastic quality in the interior is like recession grade like 2008 recession grade, which always boggled my mind, because I remember when the tundra launched, it was 2007. We were like riding high on that, that that economy where you know, mortgage backed securities are pumping everything up, and everything was expensive. And yeah, apparently Toyota had planned ahead, decided that they were going to make awful interiors and see the interior quality here is still chintzy. Even though it was initially worse. So I'm not a huge fan of the stuff you you touch, you know, the door panels and stuff like that. But overall, the controls are good. It's comfortable. It's quiet around town. ergonomically because it's old, it's actually kind of outstanding comparatively, you know, there's big knobs for the climate, the end, so you could use without much dexterity. So it's clearly something that they sat in and tried to use with gloves, which I think is that that's the classic truck test, you know, everything is a little bit oversized. So when you don't have that fine control, if you are gloved up or you're working or something, you can still get it the controls. You know, we we talk about Toyota infotainment a lot. Still not great. Apple CarPlay but it's a tiny screen on the head unit, which is fine, but the screen doesn't have a ton of resolution. So that's really, you know, I wish it was a little bit more responsive and I wish that they would make touch targets larger which is my consistent complaint. You know, and then you get to driving it. I think you'd be surprised to hear that the tundra is Truckee. It's not It's not bad Truckee, but it just

Sam Abuelsamid  24:50  
it's like, you know, 2005 2007 truck ride quality,

Dan Roth  24:56  
right, which is that it's not terrible, but it feels

Sam Abuelsamid  24:58  
it's much better. Than 1987 truck

Dan Roth  25:02  
quality. Yeah, well, and you've got to remember to like, I've been driving a lot of trucks and all those trucks that have been driving or two generations, at least newer, and there is a difference. It's, it's probably not enough to really matter if you if you want to tundra, you're still gonna buy a tundra. And the charms are there, you know, the engine sounds great. It's a 5.7 liter V eight, I think it's like 381 horsepower, 401 pound feet of torque. So that's not awful. I mean, I'd rather the higher performance version of the VA that they just announced for the is 500. Export, which just like 100 horsepower more or so but I don't think it's got the right power curve for the truck. It works together really well, you know, the power train is kind of frozen in Amber, the 5.7 and the six speed they work smoothly together. The other thing that they've done to get that 10,000 pound towing capacity, which surprised me when I looked it up, is they've got short gearing is it's kind of hot rider trick, right. So you can you can tow a lot with it. But it's gonna feel responsive until you get up on the highway. And they're, you know, where it feels Zippy around town. It really doesn't want to cruise much more than like 6570, you start to really wind it up on the tack. And some of that, I think is the performance, the not the performance, the exhaust note, I couldn't see whether it has like a TRD exhaust or something. But just there's a rumble from the engine. Like I said, it sounds good. But on the highway, you start to want an extra overdrive. And it's it's not necessarily when you look at the tack, it's it's not necessarily revving that hard. It's just throaty. So I think, you know, the best thing to think about the tundra is that it's two thirds of a Sequoia, you know, so because the way it's configured here, the bed is short, and it's one has the extra storage inside. So it's the toilet a version of the rambox, which consumes more of the bed, I think, than the ram solution. And I think it's really for people like me, you know, suburban or further out, you know, Dad with a tacomas too small, you don't necessarily trust the domestic quality reputation, although their stuff has been great for a long time. There's just a hangover. I mean,

Sam Abuelsamid  27:24  
the the tundra, you know, actually has a really good quality reputation. You know, I mean, people drive these things, it's regularly drive them, you know, two 300,000 miles. I think Toyota recently had a thing at one, you know, somebody that had driven a million miles with one of these tundras. So you know, they they are quite durable.

Dan Roth  27:44  
Yeah. And I think that's the thing is if you just if you want a truck, you don't want the hassle of really thinking about it too much. And you're not, oh, you're you're brand loyal to a Toyota or you're not brand loyal at all. This is almost like the rational choice. It's clearly it's been in production for so long, it's got all the bugs worked out. It's a little expensive here, it's 50,000. It's like 40 9040 the tundra doesn't include I think that actually hang on, I'm trying to look here. The so delivery is 1595. So I think the total includes the delivery. So it's still it's it's 47 $48,000 for a truck, that's a throwback. And it's still just the ASR five, so it's the answer five and the the trail package is like 20 $900 2029 30. So it's, it's not like the limited or 1794 trim that I would expect to be in there. I was a little more expensive than I thought. They are aggressively selling these down. There's there's good, real good lease deals on the Tundra's that you can find I don't know necessarily about sort of, you know, incentives or whatever on a purchase, but there's a new tundra coming. And that means that you'll be able to probably clear out some of their inventory and and get a decent deal. I mean, Toyota trucks trade for high prices, partially because they don't make it up in volume, you know that they do Camry volumes with these. They're not doing

Sam Abuelsamid  29:13  
that even Camry volumes. Yeah,

Dan Roth  29:14  
they do. There's been generous,

Sam Abuelsamid  29:16  
it's about 100,000 a year which that's it, I thought it was a couple 100 at least No. Tacoma actually sells a lot better than the tundra does. The tundra is about a little over 100,000 a year, which, you know, Ford sells 900,000 f series you know, GM sells somewhere between 800 850,000 you know, Chevy and GMC trucks. Ram, you know, is about between five and 600,000 a year. So you know, it's although they do sell a lot more than Nissan sells to the Titan which is about 20,000 a year

Dan Roth  29:49  
which is weird because the Titan is like it's a such such a newer truck. And Nissan keeps trying real hard throwing diesels and different engines and the heavy duty version of that. Just

Sam Abuelsamid  29:59  
hit I've got one in the driveway right now. We'll talk about that one next time. Excellent.

Dan Roth  30:05  
Yeah. So, I mean, it's a super safe trip, I actually really I came away. I like it. It's, you know, like I said, it's, it's, it's earned its character now. So it's, it's kind of like, you know, it's, it's, it's that perfectly ripened fruit, right? You gotta, you gotta pick it now. Or it's gonna, it's gonna be deadfall. And, and they've got a new one coming. So they're timing it just right. It's a safe choice. It's a good truck. It's not the most modern truck, but I think that's part of why I like it. Because of all the things we continue to complain about in, you know, brand new cars, where the seven to 15 year old car, really that's basically what it is. So yeah, I'd be curious to see how how the new Tinder changes and whether they manage to keep some of the character if it just becomes, just makes that big leap, you know, into,

Sam Abuelsamid  30:56  
one of the things that will, we can probably count on seeing is a hybrid and the new one, I would fully expect to see a hybrid version of the new tundra, along with new new design, you know, probably, I would guess, probably a significantly upgraded interior. And then a bunch of other features as well.

Dan Roth  31:15  
Yeah, that's really that's all it's missing. Is this fuel economy and interior quality?

Sam Abuelsamid  31:19  
Yeah, let's keep looking at the website yet. 13 miles per gallon city, 17. highway is not great. Yeah, no, it's awful. A monster truck.

Dan Roth  31:28  
It's terrible. You know, it drives it drives Well, you know, it's, it's fine to drive. And

Sam Abuelsamid  31:34  
well, you know, fortunately, even though this is comparatively old, by today's standards, you know, By the mid 2000s, you know, trucks had really evolved a lot, you know, when I, when I started, you know, working as an engineer in 1990, working on abs, and some, you know, some cases on some of these trucks, you know, in the early 90s, still, you know, late 80s, early 90s, trucks were still really bad, like, they had terrible steering, you know, a lot of slop in the steering, the brakes were awful, you know, terrible ride quality. And, you know, by the late 90s, they had really evolved, you know, they put much better brakes on trucks, you know, one of the challenges with trucks, you know, they put the brake calipers on, you know, early 90s, trucks, you know, had a lot of flex in them. So, when you stepped on the brake, you know, you, you'd go halfway through the pedal travel before anything happened. And now, you know, they've got, you know, big stiff calipers on there, so you get much better brake feel, much better steering feel. They're just, you know, every truck, you know, By the mid 2000s, they've gotten so much better to drive, and they've continued to evolve, but that, you know, the, the jump from the mid 2000s to today is a lot smaller than it was from 1990 to 2005.

Dan Roth  32:52  
That's true. That's, that's true. And even honestly, the brakes are another area where I think the modern trucks definitely outperform the tundra, but it's not like, you know, when I think back to pickups like that, the Ford F 150, or F series when I was, you know, growing up, that had been the same truck since 1978. And they built that all the way to 1996. In some form. So it's, it's not quite that old yet. You know, it's getting there. But the, the tender is due. So we'll see how it is. But let's move on to some questions.

Sam Abuelsamid  33:29  
Let's just do one question.

Dan Roth  33:30  
All right, let's do one question.

Sam Abuelsamid  33:31  
Okay. So, Rick chin, wrote into this, said, first of all loves the show, and hearing your experience in the market. And it's actually kind of relates back to some of what Rebecca talked about last week. One of your one of your recent podcasts you mentioned both the alpha male Julia and the Genesis g 70. And I happen to have owned both. I enjoy sports cars, especially ones with strong focus on an enthusiast driver. I hope to get me out of one day, alpha male seems to have a reputation for reliability However, my 2017 Julia coupe q4 so that's that's what the two liter turbo and all wheel drive. Not the two liter not the highest power key, not the higher power clutch quadrifoglio was very reliable and an absolute blast to drive. That car made such a strong connection with the driver and was so responsive and bordered on telepathic, my dealer was 90 minutes away, and I think I went there only four times while I had the car once for its first oil change and other times for updates and recalls, the 2017 had several software updates that were incorporated into 2018 and later models. See, I travel a fair amount for work and couldn't wait to get back home to take the Juliet four hours of backroad driving on country roads or trip for the weekend. When people asked me to describe the Giulia I said that the Italians had figured out how to make a car seductive and irresistible. One longs to drive a car that feels like an extension of your whole your thoughts and actions. I discovered whole new restaurants because I made up any excuse or justification I could drive to the other side of town. As much as I wanted to get another Giulia the 2020 models were just arriving in the US when I needed to return my 2017 and the deals incentives were non existent. I almost got to 2019 because of that, about that time the Genesis g 70. Sport was getting a lot of press. And while I was familiar with Hyundai and Kia and their increase in quality and value, I knew nothing about Genesis I found a dealer and took a couple of ge 70 models for a test drive over the course of three months. I do a lot of research. The g7 has so many great features even more than the updated 2020 Julia it also handled very well and the 365 horsepower 3.3 liter turbo V six is a great match for that car. The interior is great and the economics are also are very good also, I enjoy the G 70. A lot if it I feel is better built car than Julia more solid and it has even been very reliable even better than the Julia the stability control on the G 70 is tuned perfectly for spirited driving Hang Hang the tail out while still being easily controlled and without surprises. The extra 85 horsepower and torque in the G 70 lets it do things. The Giulia would probably struggle to recreate the wonderful car and perhaps the best value in the entire market right now. I love so many things about the G 70. It's hard to find fault in it. mediocre gas mileage and the trunk is a bit small. And that's about it. When it comes time to look for another car I'm going to have it's going to be a hard choice. However, I know I'll go back and look at the Alfa again, as great as the G 70. Is it lacks some not all of the finesse of the Giulia and the Giulia is like a surgeon's scalpel. The G 70 is a fine chef's knife, the feelings that I had in the Giulia still resonate with me. I look at Genesis, I will look at Genesis again to hopefully the G 70. Stays legitimately sporty to also one final point, I feel that much of the unreliability alpha gets blamed for comes from the 505 horsepower quadrifoglio. If you notice when someone has a problem, it's mainly with the Quadra folio. Maybe that's because those were the press cars. I think the Giulia models with the two liter were more reliable explorer more reliable experience. Looking forward to my next drive.

Dan Roth  37:04  
I have that's a that's a great review. He should come on the show.

Sam Abuelsamid  37:07  
Yeah, absolutely.

Dan Roth  37:09  
I think he's probably right that the the quarter affiliates, and that's typical with a lot of the high performance models, just they're they're a little bit more finicky than the regular versions, I found that with the 60s, I didn't want an AR because everything on that car was special, and all potential trouble. Whereas the T five that I wound up with was a little bit and it was still fun, but it was a little bit a little bit more sort of reliable and just not as troublesome. So that's a good point.

Sam Abuelsamid  37:43  
You know, the V six, the twin turbo V six, and the Quadra folios is both in the Giulia and the Stelvio was, you know developed and I think it's actually assembled by Ferrari, which is why it has that sound. And that

Unknown Speaker  37:57  
lovely engine is is

Sam Abuelsamid  37:59  
amazing, but you know, everything in that car is going to be more highly stressed than it is, you know, and I can certainly see where, you know, especially, you know, some of the reports of the car and driver. And, you know, one or two other publications had some issues with theirs, you know, but, you know, they're taking their cars to the track. And, you know, they they're beating them up. Yeah, I mean, they're pushing them to their limits.

Dan Roth  38:23  
Well, then they're also like early cars, too. I know, current driver had some trouble and some of the troubles they have is brought on by just the fact that they're you know, the cars are moving all around are in Michigan, so they deal with winter. And so you can't necessarily help when the high performance sedan hits a giant pothole and takes out two wheels and stuff like that. So it's all kind of a balance. I think that the the Giulia with the two liter is probably the better balance car overall. I guess that's probably the better experience if you're gonna own one.

Sam Abuelsamid  38:55  
Yeah, I haven't driven the two liter Julia, I've driven the two liter Stelvio. And you know, the Stelvio is basically the same thing. You know, it's a slightly lifted, Julia wagon, essentially. And, you know, that's, that's a wonderful engine, I mean, that that same two liter turbo, you know, that's the engine that they also use, you know, and a variety of other FCA vehicles. You know, it's the it's the base of the the base engine and the the Wrangler you know, the Wrangler. Mild hybrid, you know, it's a, it's a two liter, it's that same two liter turbo with, you know, with a 48 volt mild hybrid system, I added on to it. So, you know, they, they use it in a variety of different products, and it's going to get more use, you know, in the next couple of years as well. I think, you know, it's it's a lovely vehicle. I can definitely see you know, having driven both the Julia and the G 70. You know, the the Julia does have a little bit more of that. Italian flair to it. Yeah, certainly in the way it looks. And the way it drives. But the the G 70 is also an outstanding car. So it would be a tough choice to make between those two.

Dan Roth  40:08  
Yeah, I think that the the rarity of the Julia and the sort of spirit that it has, would probably be really hard to ignore. That said, there's a lot of charm going on over agenesis these days. I really liked the G 70. Quite a bit, but I don't I, I really I don't know. And

Sam Abuelsamid  40:32  
you're probably less likely to have some of the kinds of software issues that you might have in the alpha.

Dan Roth  40:38  
Yeah, yeah. And but Genesis is toying with their pricing to which we had a comment about that were in the first couple of years, the pricing was was great. Now, some of the pricing has changed. So it's, it's actually more expensive to get into one may be configured the way you might like it. So I don't know. I did. Do we want to suggest anything as an alternate choice? Or did we just want to give Rick, the opportunity to sound off?

Sam Abuelsamid  41:04  
I think that's good. All right.

Dan Roth  41:07  
Well, good, let's, let's wrap it up, we have an interview to get to. And you have to get out of here. So

Nilay Patel  41:41  
I host decoder, which is a new podcast, only a couple months old now, which is really focused on technology and business, and how to make good business decisions in a world that has been turned upside down by technology. So we interviewed a lot of CEOs, we interviewed a lot of executives, academics, really try to understand how technology is changing the entire business landscape. And then really, I demand product features from CEOs who come on my show, that's really the if there's a really an underlying reason for me to host that show. It's to demand the Instagram add features for me,

Dan Roth  42:15  
I think that's what you should do when you have their their attention. It's amazing the access you can get as a journalist to the people at the top, so you might as well, you know, flex that muscle a little

Sam Abuelsamid  42:24  
Yeah, I know I do it every time I talk to people, I tell him, you have to get rid of the touchscreen. touchscreens do not belong in cars. And they just they don't really they don't listen to me.

Nilay Patel  42:33  
And I gotta tell you, they're they're doing the opposite. They're just getting bigger. I know. They're eating the entirety. And it seems like people like them. Yeah. So you're fighting the tide a little bit. I agree with I think I'm a buttons and knobs person in the car. But yeah, man,

Dan Roth  42:46  
I think what it is, is like it's that initial impressiveness where you get into Oh, look at the biggest, like when somebody has a giant TV. And in like a room that's like 12 by 12. Right, then it's like a 90 inch screen. Like this kind of sucks. It's like sitting in front of the, you know, the front row at the movie houses

Sam Abuelsamid  43:01  
is scanning your head back and forth to you know, to see what's going on in the scene. Yeah, it's, it's crazy.

Dan Roth  43:07  
Yeah, it looks impressive.

Nilay Patel  43:08  
I've gotta say I'm after, you know, a decade plus of being tech journalist, I see a screen a touchscreen in particular. And all I see is a computer. And then I just saw, all I see is computer problems. I see the thing being slow, I see a software update issue. I see like five years from now, it's going to try to connect to a cloud service that's extinct. Like, my entire brain is like, I don't know. I don't know. And then, you know, people love big touchscreens. So I'm just like the buzzkill in the room where I'm like, I don't know, do you want another Linux computer in your life? And that is not a compatible thought, with most.

Dan Roth  43:46  
That's what we've run into as well, you know, we we wind up being painted as like these, these Luddites and you're by people who don't actually understand what the Luddites were all about. They were actually kind of like, unions. But, you know, tech coverage is dislike nearly overwhelmingly future optimistic kind of thing to the point that those of us who who pump the brakes for a second and have that like skeptical eye, we constantly suffer that that like slings and arrows of, well, you guys just don't don't like it. You're just cranky and old? It's like, no, there's this blind spot in tech coverage of the did you actually imagine all of the ways that could be used even bad ways? And we, we see that were like, all of a sudden, Uber's being used to stop. It's like, didn't you think about that before you actually like released the thing? Oh, they

Nilay Patel  44:36  
thought they were excited about it? I would, I would parse that a little more. Finally, let's say cars. I'm on a car show. This is a good example. You know, 20 years ago, if you bought a hyper performance car, the chances that you would crash it or kill yourself were extraordinarily high, right? Because there was just not a lot of computers in that car, helping you operate. It isn't that the thrill, maybe it is, it's

Unknown Speaker  45:02  
part of it. It's

Nilay Patel  45:05  
like, if you're a purist, it's part of it. Now you have cars, like consumer cars, like average cars have the performance of hypercars, from 20 years ago. And they're normal cars, you can just operate, right. And there's like a lot of reasons for that. But mostly, it's a bunch of invisible computers that help you operate that car. That is not a bad thing. Almost all of the problems come from human computer interaction. So on a very basic level, it's Is it a touchscreen? Or is it a knob? What does the interface look like? Is the interface fast when you push the buttons, the basics, like the basics of that get ignored or overlooked all the time. And then you can scale that up to over built a system that lets you track every rider in the system, it turns out humans, when offered the opportunity to track every rider in the system, we'll take the opportunity to track every rider in the system, and you have to preemptively Stop it. So I think there's like I would parse it at we're pretty bad still human computer interaction, we are very good at making computers augment our abilities that we that are useful. And I think that that branching point, you can just see it all over a car, right? Like in a car right? Now you can be like, I would like it to be 72 degrees in this car, and the car will just do it. And you will never have to think about it again. And there's not like a fourth order societal collapse, because of the climate control system.

Dan Roth  46:33  
That's a bit that actually winds up being that's funny that you pick climate quotes is that is an ongoing argument. There are those of us who prefer like only manual climate.

Sam Abuelsamid  46:43  
I want three knots. fan speed, and direction. That's it. I can see in this whole those without even looking at them.

Dan Roth  46:53  
Yeah, but the thing is, like, the whole, like, you won't have to think about it, it turns out, you'll be driving along with that thing set to 72. And you're like, why the hell is it blowing cold air at me? It's February. Yeah, it's because it's trying to maintain that 72 it's like, it's just so funny that like, no matter what example we pick

Nilay Patel  47:09  
up, when I came up driving my mom, I inherited my mom's 94 five series BMW, it had those three, it had the three sliders for the events. And I like that thing was a puzzle, like people would get in a car and be like, what? Like, where are the knobs? Right? Like, I don't understand. And like, that kind of interaction design just ladders up like that was as manual as it gets. And it still confused the hell out of people. And so I just think there's a balance, like usually, when we talk about computer problems, it's literally the stuff human beings directly interact with. It is rarely the stuff that just takes care of things for you. Yeah, yeah, no, I

Sam Abuelsamid  47:50  
this is one of the issues that we've talked a lot about on the show, you know, is that the way people interact with with the technology and cars, and and also what they perceive the capabilities have that technology to be? You know, one of the things I think we've talked about it here I know, I've talked about it elsewhere, is this concept of bottle washing. You know, if you remember, you know, a decade ago, there was a lot of discussion around green washing, you know, companies, you know, like automakers, you know, putting flex fuel capability into the cars to use ethanol is 85 that nobody ever used, but they got credit for making their cars greener. And yeah, now, you know, there's a great researcher named Eliza Dixon, she's, she's based in Germany right now working on her PhD, she wrote a paper last year called about this, she dubbed this term auto washing, where you, you know, automakers create the perception that, you know, these systems are more capable than they actually are. And it's dangerous for consumers that have to interact with it, because they think it can do more than it does. Yeah.

Dan Roth  48:52  
And can you think of an example of that,

Sam Abuelsamid  48:56  
you know, not right off the top of my head, but, you know, I'm sure that there's some carmaker based in Silicon Valley, that, that might have something to do with that, you know, you know, Tesla is the prime example. But, you know, other other manufacturers to lesser degrees have done the same thing, you know, with, I mean, just with the branding, or some of their marketing around, you know, some of the partially automated driving features or driver assistance systems. You know, you mentioned, you know that computers are great at helping people to do stuff. The the inverse of that is that humans are, are terrible at supervising computers. Yes. You know, when something works, most of the time, we tend to tune out. And the problem is, it's that, you know, 1% or half percent or 10, one 10th of 1% of the time, when things happen and in a car when those things go wrong. You know, it's not like, you know, your springboard rebooting, you know, it's, oh, shit, I'm under a truck, you know, and the roof of my car is gone. And That's where, you know, that's where things can go really awful. And we we have to be a lot more careful about how we're implementing technology in cars.

Nilay Patel  50:10  
Yeah, I agree. And I that to me, the autopilot situation,

Sam Abuelsamid  50:14  
when is this coming out? sometime this week. Okay, next is around the next few days.

Nilay Patel  50:22  
Okay, so if it comes out after Tuesday. So the next guest I have in decoder is Austin Russell, who's the CEO of luminar. And he, you know, he and I talked about Tesla for a while, and the self driving system he's building. And he basically echoed your concern. He's like, I'm building first rebuilding LIDAR sensors that have a paradigm shift level of capability enhancement. And then we want to build the entire stack and sell that as a supplier to all the automakers. And he's like, the goal is no steering wheel. And like, that's what we have to stay focused on. And having the steering wheel just confuses people. And I think the confusion is in the other way, I think the confusion is more what you're talking about, that having a steering wheel and a thing called autopilot. And watching that steering wheel move by itself makes you believe the car can drive itself. Whereas if you got in a car without a steering wheel, I think the first decade of that is going to be a long process of people learning to trust those vehicles without steering wheels. Because the only other vehicles you get into routinely that you can't see the the operator is like the monorail at Disney World airport. Right, like a very controlled system. And the second year in a car, on the road without a steering wheel, and the entire installed base of United States, automobiles being operated by other people around you, you are going to panic. And I think that that moment, I think will be a big sea change for people.

Sam Abuelsamid  51:47  
Yeah,

Dan Roth  51:48  
I'd have trouble getting into one quite honestly, I'd like or, you know, depending on how the system is designed around it. You know, it's like I trust a train. That's fine train could be autonomous. I mean, I trust ish, there's gonna always be those outlier accidents, but a car on the road that is driving itself with other people who are driving their own cars like that. When those two things coexist. That's where the danger lies. It's just terrifying.

Nilay Patel  52:14  
Well, there's a reason that when you get on a commercial airliner, the pilots standing out there, right? Like, there's a there's a little bit of a show of like the cockpit doors open, you can see them, there's people there. Have you ever been on? This very distinct memory, I was once on an Airbus plane that was landing, it was kind of rainy and dark outside, you landed and was great landing. And the pilot came on the intercom and said, Hey, everybody, the autopilot landed the plane, which is like a totally normal thing. But he was just like, excited because he had gotten to do it. And the whole plane was what? Like, the person didn't do it. Like I remember, like the gasp, and it's like, well, the autopilot flew the plane the whole rest of the day. And I just that moment of a human being saying I'm not in control of what seems like a chaotic or unpredictable situation, I think that's going to be more of a cultural impediment to self driving, than the current moment where, yeah, like, at least there's a person in the driver's seat in a Tesla. And maybe they're just like, looking at their phone, and they shouldn't be, but you have that backstop of like they're gonna notice it. And we know, we know that they are not going to, but it's still I think, comforting to everyone around those cars.

Sam Abuelsamid  53:23  
Yeah, well, I mean, you know, aviation is a much less chaotic environment, most of the time, then roads are, you know, your planes are usually, you know, several miles apart. You know, there's, there's, you don't have to deal with pedestrians and cyclists and things like that. And, you know, on the road, it you know, everything is very close together happening very quickly, very randomly, you know, pedestrians change direction, or cyclists change direction at any moment in time. And it's, it's, it's, in many ways, a much more difficult challenge than an autopilot system. Yeah, I mean, autopilot in an airplane is basically cruise control. It's not that dramatically different from the cruise control we've had for 4050 years in our cars. And, you know, to, to call something in a car autopilot, that has that kind of that level of functionality implies something that is way more than what it's actually capable of. And, you know, I was just on Thursday, I was driving the new Chevy Bolt EV, and it's got supercruise it's the first non Cadillac supercruise in it. And, you know, most of the drive route was on highways because we wanted to try out supercruise and you know, it, I've driven supercruise vehicles several times before, and it's always, you know, kind of mind boggling, you know, having my hands you know, on my lap, watching the steering wheel, you know, at 70 miles an hour watching the steering wheel, follow the road, but you know, at least GM you know, on that interface, they do a better job on the internet. With the driver, you know, letting the driver know the state of the system and when they need to take over. That's, that's been one of the challenges with Tesla's, you know, they, their system is not really great at communicating what's actually going on with the driver?

Nilay Patel  55:16  
What do you think of their new Model S

Sam Abuelsamid  55:19  
plan

Nilay Patel  55:20  
to have the gearshift automated,

Sam Abuelsamid  55:23  
I think that that's a terrible idea. You know, it's, you know, something like that, you know, where the system is guessing, you know, in a lot, and this, you know, it's like what I said before, you know, 99% of the time, it's probably going to be fine. Because, you know, there's going to be a lot of scenarios, you know, you're in a parking lot, you're surrounded by cars, you know, and the cameras are gonna see, okay, there's a car in front of me, so I can't go forward. And there's an I can see there's an aisle behind me, obviously, the driver wants to backup and backup. Fair enough, that's, that's a pretty straightforward one, or pulling out of a garage or whatever it might be. But there's, there's going to be so many of those instances where it's ambiguous, and, you know, then, you know, then you have to go searching on the touchscreen, you know, to figure out how to engage it manually. And I just think it's a really terrible idea.

Nilay Patel  56:16  
I'm excited. There's like a part of me that I hate rotary shift knobs, right? Like, I can't stand them. I don't know, like, I'm a shift lever person. And I'm like, Well, if you can't give me the lever, and you're gonna make me fiddle with this style, I honestly, I'd rather have the control on a touchscreen and the system, trying to predict which button I'm going to push, like, we'll see how it's executed. But there's just a level of what least and on the stupid dial on my face.

Dan Roth  56:45  
It's kind of like a slot machine. Right? You never know quite. Of course.

Sam Abuelsamid  56:48  
It's, it's, it's actually kind of all even when you had a shift selector on the Tesla. It's oftentimes been kind of a slot machine anyway. You know, Leo Laporte, you know, I do a segment on his on his radio show every week on car tech. And, you know, he used to have a Model X. And he, he talked on numerous occasions where, you know, they would put it in reverse and the car would go forward. Yeah. So, you know, just having an electronic selector, there is not necessarily a guarantee, you know, if there's a problem in the software, it's not a guarantee that it's actually going to do what you want anyway. So, you know, it's it's always a bit of a crapshoot when you insert software into these systems.

Dan Roth  57:33  
So we dove right in,

Nilay Patel  58:06  
My parents looks foolish Lee when I was a teenager bought me a Mustang. shahril mistake. It was not a great Mustang. It was like a V six. It was a 98 v six. Okay, just a miserable like looking back, just actually a miserable car.

Dan Roth  58:24  
How long did it take you before you crashed it the first time

Sam Abuelsamid  58:27  
I I would.

Nilay Patel  58:31  
That Mustang. It definitely bumped into a lot of things, but I never totaled it. That's what I will say at this point in time

Dan Roth  58:37  
outstanding.

Nilay Patel  58:38  
I raced the car, it was slow. It often lost races. Like my friend who had like a 92. Lumina would often torch that car like it had, I think it was 160 horsepower. It was heavy as hell. But it was really fun. And so that like, led me down the road to just generally paying a lot of attention to cars. And I think, yeah, cars and technology are just they've been on the same track for an awful long time. Certainly, you know, as sort of the 2000s entered that. We take that over as the 2000s began. And the idea of the inside of the car becoming a computer really took off. And I think that started the second. People wanted to plug their iPods in the cars. And then you kind of entered that crazy era of aftermarket car stereos big screens, like flip out and fold. And then you got to the phone. And like, just that race sort of was on. It was parallel to my evolution as a tech journalist, right. So you could just see where it was going. And then the cars themselves are just gotten so interesting over time. Like, we're not I came up as a Car and Driver reader, right and for like about 15 years current drive would be like this car is almost as good as a BMW. And I was like all there was to say about cars. And that has just broken open like that is not the case anymore. You see a lot of variables petitive even legacy automakers and then the flood of new carmakers that we see is just absolutely fascinating to me. We were talking about rivian before we started recording. So I just think that the space has gotten completely fascinating. And cars themselves have gotten really good. And, you know, as we've been talking when self driving, they've gotten really good, right before they might totally change, which is an absolutely fascinating time to be really interested in cars.

Dan Roth  1:00:27  
Yeah, that's true. I mean, I think like, we've got seven 800 horsepower cars, you could just go by, yes. If you have enough money, you can go

Sam Abuelsamid  1:00:35  
700 horsepower, Ram tr x. Yeah, that's insane.

Nilay Patel  1:00:40  
Yeah, you need like, $150,000 It's you, I would, if I was gonna try to get that engine, I don't know that I would buy it. It's because I have a raptor. So like, I've got some like loyalty here. But I would rather buy that and one of the smaller, smaller feet, I guess it's still lantis. Now I'd rather buy one of the smaller dodges than where they're putting it right now.

Dan Roth  1:01:02  
Smaller dodge

Sam Abuelsamid  1:01:07  
horsepower is nothing compared to what's coming, you know, in the next year, with electric pickup trucks, as you know, we got the the GMC Hummer, you know, rivian I don't think it's gonna be quite that powerful. But the cybertruck you know, I mean, those things are gonna have over 1000 horsepower with instant torque. Yeah, what? What do you think, you know, you own a raptor today? What do you think about the idea of these electric pickup trucks.

Nilay Patel  1:01:33  
So my Raptor blast, I looked cuz I don't keep that screen up. Because it makes me feel bad. But my Raptor gets about 14 or 15 miles a gallon, which is horrible. Not bad. For Raptor. It's not bad. And it's like, I try, like, I actively try to not just burn gas in my car. I think the TR x gets nine, like, this is ridiculous. It's a ridiculous situation. And I think, you know, yet I keep pointing out Chrysler, I'm just gonna keep

Dan Roth  1:02:00  
this you know, when you when you look there for for, like the corporate information, they're still separate, like, it's still lantis. And then like, you go from this domantas site to like FCA or,

Nilay Patel  1:02:10  
Sofia, I still call it this year, Stefan. So that's where I'm at, I'm not letting it go. Like Fiat Chrysler, like, they're not gonna be able to produce that engine for much longer, given their mission, maybe two, three years tops. So I get there having fun, I think that the high performance electric trucks that come with an electric f150 is due out this year, or they're at least going to start talking about it more seriously this year. I think that that will be a sea change. Because if you own one of these trucks, right now, you are paying so much money for gas, maybe you're gonna pay a lot more money for electricity compared to a model three, sure. But like, you just have this enormous fixed cost that comes with operating that vehicle. And most of the people who operate them are either using them for work, in which case that cost, like, it's just a real factor in their revenue and their profit. Or they're just people like me who just like pickup trucks and you're like, Oh, I can get one that's even more performant. And it costs less to operate. Like I'm gonna make that trade 10 out of 10. I'm thinking like, the new Raptor just got announced. I just bought mine in September, if they announced it with a power boost hybrid, I would have actually seriously considered making the miserable financial decision of trading in one year after for a new one. But they didn't so I'm just gonna keep on.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:03:31  
Yeah. And you know, the new Raptor, at least at launch, it's gonna have this basically the same powertrain is what you've got. So that's, you're not you're not missing out on too much there. I

Nilay Patel  1:03:40  
don't think i don't i don't think i think when looks cooler.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:03:42  
Yeah. That's fair enough. So,

Dan Roth  1:03:47  
so what's Oh, go ahead and say,

Sam Abuelsamid  1:03:48  
Oh, I was just gonna say, you know, you used to live in Brooklyn. Now you don't? That's why I went to the didn't the purchase of the Raptor. Didn't that coincide with your relocation? last year?

Nilay Patel  1:04:00  
Yeah, so I had, I had been socking away money. I told myself, I was gonna buy another Mustang when I turned 40. So gurriel, I was like, you know, I'm gonna lean into this midlife crisis. It's happening for me, I'm gonna do it. So I've been, I'd always been planning to buy a Mustang at 40. And then the pandemic hit, I just turned 40 in December. So the pandemic hit. And we left the city, we were lucky enough, we, we owned a house upstate, so we just like moved into our house here. After a while, we came out of our lease. And one of the things that we talked about in pandemic is okay, we're gonna live in the woods, we're gonna, we have to try to get everything out of this year that we can. We don't want to be in a defensive posture, we want to like, Okay, this is like, this is how it's going to be for next year and change. We have to, like, try to do things in this year that we would otherwise never do. And for me, it was, um, by Raptor, like, there's no other circumstance in which I would buy a pickup truck. There's no other circumstance in which I would buy a high performance offer. pickup truck like, so I just sort of diverted the Mustang purchase into a raptor. Now what is true is that, it turns out we really needed a pickup truck. So we live so far from anything that I end up. After we're done recording this podcast. I'm going to load the bed of the truck with our trash from the week and drive it to the transfer station. I was live on a trash far. Wow. So like this is just kidding. So it turns out I needed a pickup truck. Did I need a 450 horsepower? desert runner? No, I did not. But

Dan Roth  1:05:31  
look, if you're gonna do it, if like, that's what you got to commit, like, all the way so I support that and Raptors hold their value anyway. Like it's not it's not like you won't be able to trade

Nilay Patel  1:05:41  
I have tried to make this argument that this was a sound financial decision. I like made everybody watch I made I made my wife watch the dog tomorrow video. It's like a Raptors a great purchase. And she was like, I don't care. Like, I honestly, if you're making this mistake, don't bankrupt us. And we'll be fine. Yeah, see, I I have really enjoyed owning this truck. It's a very fun. You know, I've done all the sort of Raptor things you do with it. Like I've spent a day and a half installing fog lights in the front bumper, like, there's just like Raptor stuff you do. And it's like a good time. It's a thing. It's a project to have what I've ever done this if not for the pandemic, like probably 0%. But I think it's, it's pretty fun to have this experience. Like I said, Our approach has been to try to get everything out of the pandemic here that we can that we wouldn't have otherwise done. So that said, I still want to buy a Mustang.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:06:35  
So, you know, once this does subside, yeah, I'm curious, you know, how your experience of leaving the city, and how it's changed your driving style? Do you foresee moving back to the city at some point, or is this do you see this being kind of your permanent lifestyle? And, you know, as when you were in the city, did you? I assume you didn't drive much? I assume you probably took sublayers or, you know, transit? Yeah, around.

Nilay Patel  1:07:07  
So yeah, we, we took the subway, I took a lot of reverse, actually, which isn't great. And then some combination of like, delta credit card points and other things like led me to start taking a lot of lifts. It's amazing little shift you. Actually, you know, what's funny is like, that budget is also paying for a new car, right? Like it, it has worked itself out. And that Ubers plan of you won't own a car, but you'll spend a car payment on us every year every month was absolutely true. We did on the car to get up here, we we have a Jeep Grand Cherokee, we drove it up here all the time. We slide that car, I think when this is over, is a hazy moment for everybody. Right? Like, we don't have access. We're not on the list. We're young and healthy. And we live in the middle of nowhere. We are at the bottom of New York State's vaccine eligibility list. So when it's over for us, it's probably later for everybody else. I do think a lot of people are going to stay out of the cities like not necessarily because they moved because of the pandemic, the way I've been thinking about it is the pandemic accelerated a lot of trends. One big trend is like millennials, and I'm I am just older than millennials, but just by millennials, we're getting older, they're having kids, and they're leaving cities. That's a thing they were doing anyway. And now they're doing it faster than before. Are we still going to work in cities or we're still going to go to offices, I I strongly suspect that people are going to want to go back to offices way more than they realize, even though working remote is beneficial in some ways. And then people miss it. So I think that the move to live in the suburbs, and have an easy commute to a city is going to be very high.

Dan Roth  1:08:52  
Well, I think what I've seen is that the housing market has tightened up everywhere. And I think that's partially you know, what you're what you're saying is like there's just no inventory like there's there's no existing houses, there's no there's a lot of new houses, but they don't quite exist yet. And prices are sky high. Because companies and people have realized like that, that they were sort of forced to transition to remote. And they figured out it works and that people are the promises are true people are more productive. They're capturing that commute time and they're just logging on earlier logging off later, you're getting more out of people. And people are like, you know, realizing like we don't have to go into the city or we don't have to buy in the city where the prices were already high and we're actually seeing city prices drop. Well, you know, the Sprawl prices go up, which it's interesting. And we'll see how that balances off eventually, whether people who actually want to live in the city can now afford to versus getting priced out before so it'll be interesting to see what happens like next year.

Unknown Speaker  1:09:55  
Yeah,

Nilay Patel  1:09:56  
like I said, I think I think it being over is not a fixed point in time, right? It will be a long and slow sort of gradation for people. But I, I just fundamentally think you have some kids, your desire to live and pay the cost of being in a city changes dramatically when that happens. That is happening to a lot of millennials. They're gonna go seek more space. But, you know, I interviewed the CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai. And he said, Look, the the challenge for us being remote is, everybody knows what to do it that's easy, remote, like you show up to work, you have your project, you're just moving down the milestones of the project to working on, the challenge for every company is coming up with what to do next, which requires a lot more soft conversations, which requires more just a lot of serendipity. Like you, there's an amount of creativity and inspiration that happens when you're around other people that I feel even at the verge that I think people are going to miss and it's going to draw, it's going to draw folks back to offices in a way that I think right now is sort of under underappreciated.

Dan Roth  1:11:05  
I think that's sort of what you're working on kind of thing as you're, you know, getting getting crappy coffee at the Keurig or something. That's the same kind of thing. The coffee's better for working from home, but some of that cross pollination isn't isn't happening. You know, it's interesting that we've seen that, that crossover with cars and tech and I think it's a good opportunity, having a tech journalist on I was thinking about how connected cars and even the, like the self driving and OTA updates and stuff, v2 x, all that stuff is sort of on the cusp of we're pushing the technology that we already have the wireless like 4g, then we've got 5g over here, waiting, but that's been kind of a disaster. It's not been great. Yeah. So like, is that gonna improve? Is 5g gonna get better? I mean, we've got like, the FCC has been so business friendly, and like, you know, consumer hostile when it's our damn airwaves, they're not getting anything for it. Right

Nilay Patel  1:12:08  
before I came on, Verizon, customers were actually tweeted, if your battery's dying, turn off your 5g. It's like a real thing that it's like a real message from Verizon customer support. And, you know, the car industry in those terms, is five years behind the bleeding edge of a phone. Right? Like, just a year or two ago, I can't remember it was GM or Ford. But like, one of the, the two big American car makers was bragging to me that it finally started putting LTE radios in their cars, which would then enable something right, like, and I was like, You guys are so far behind. Like, this is like comedy levels of being behind like you were shipping 3g radios and cars last year, those cars are new. So now you have a decade of 3g radios to deal with. Why are we even having this conversation? Why don't you replace the radios, no scratch on you have an upgrade program, all the things that you would expect from a computer, they were just not ready to do. So I'm excited about the moment now with Okay, Ford is talking about sync and otaa. They've announced this partnership with Google. They're shifting, I think from the the Q and x stack to the Android stack. All that stuff will make it easier. None of that is going to change the fundamental problem of they've got a lot of cars on the road of support, that are nowhere that are never going to have the capability. That's a decade then they've got to bring up a 5g radio in the car. Which that's another five years right. Like, I just I see that moment for the traditional automakers as being almost impossible to navigate. I think that's how Ford got to Google. I think they looked at it and said we can't do it. There was just that great story in the journal about VW, just utterly failing with its new software architecture and the ID for shipping basically with like dead screens. It's like a problem.

Dan Roth  1:14:01  
It's, it's a little bit yeah.

Nilay Patel  1:14:03  
Where's the new carmakers? I think Tesla chief among them, but rivian Fisker, like you name it, they don't have any of this debt. And they're bringing up the car around the idea of some level of modularity, not a lot. But some you can replace that center screen in a Tesla and gain new capabilities. The cars being conducted from the first day and the cars being updated, updatable from the jump. And I think that is like one of the reasons the new carmakers are particularly exciting. They've tossed out a lot of assumptions, and they don't have to pay any legacy costs. 20 years from now, is that are they just gonna be where GM is say probably, but right now they're able to make entirely new kinds of products, starting with what we can bring up a 5g radio in the car a lot faster than forever. Well,

Dan Roth  1:14:51  
yeah, I think that's that's true as you when when any of the legacy automakers do it, they have to consider how does this fit with our existing architecture that we already spent billions of dollars developing? And then how do we manage the people who bought one just today? And don't get the thing that we're gonna roll out tomorrow? And can we actually make that upgrade? And again, just supporting for like,

Sam Abuelsamid  1:15:16  
it's really thorny to sort of defend for a little bit? You know, I think probably when when they told you that about their start putting LTE radios in the cars, up until 2018, most Ford vehicles didn't have radio in them at all, they for the, you know, they've been relying on the bring your own device model for sync. And they actually didn't have vehicles with 3g radios. And so, you know, they started ramping up quickly ramping up LTE radios, you know, a lot of other automakers were doing it back in 2013 2014, like GM, and

Nilay Patel  1:15:46  
yeah, I don't remember who it was for, for for GM. But

Sam Abuelsamid  1:15:49  
yeah, but Ford only did only start putting LTE radios in about three years ago. And, but, you know, now, you know, they're gonna have to support those, you know, as they transition to 5g, you know, two or three years from now, you know, and, and the same goes for every other manufacturer, I mean, all the Tesla's built today, you know, I mean, there's still a lot of Tesla's on the road that have 3g radios in them. And, and, you know, now they're 4g, and, you know, as they transition to 5g, you know, they're gonna have to keep supporting those. And that's gonna depend in part, on the networks, you know, GM had this problem early on with OnStar, you know, the first generation of OnStar was still analog, it was analog, cellular, radios, 2g. And those, as those networks got shut off, you know, they had to basically cut off service to those vehicles. And this is one of the problems, I think one of the things that people don't think about so much with their cars, because cars tend to be such long life products, you know, average age of cars on the road today in the US is 12 years. And, you know, many of them are 2530 years old, you know, and you guys talk about this a lot, you know, with phones, you know, two three year old phones that aren't getting updates anymore. And this is one of the challenges in the automotive space, because these products lasts so long. How long are they gonna keep getting updates, and this is part of the how things are gonna have to change for the auto industry, is figuring out how they're going to support these products, you know, for as long as these products actually last. So I think consumers, you know, liked the idea of OTA updates in their cars in the abstract. But I think once they actually have to start paying for subscriptions for all these things, may start the the the honeymoon may start to wear off pretty quickly.

Unknown Speaker  1:17:39  
Yeah,

Nilay Patel  1:17:40  
I would just, I think one thing to kind of break apart here is like where the, the real value of the update is, and where the perceived value is, right? So Tesla pushes an update that lets you play a video game on the center screen. That is just an earned media moment for Tesla. It costs them nothing, they can push it to every one of their cars. It should not read carefully here, but it should not affect the operation McArdle, it probably doesn't. But you know, like weird things happen. That is an enormous earned media moment. For Tesla, it reinforces the value of the Tesla ownership experience to you. It makes the car fun and alive and change. Again, very small update. My Jeep I needed to take it to the dealer to get a software update because the shifter was killing people. Yeah, right. Like that is an update that I think should have been pushed over the air immediately. And it took a celebrity dying for Jeep to even admit that it needed to push out the update all the way and get everybody to go to the dealer and do the updates. And I'm sure there are still lots of jeeps of that generation out that never got this update. That is a huge split in the value of software updates. If we can get to a place where more cars can get safety updates like this, all that stuff. I think that people will pay for that. But to make the perceived value high, you have to do things like well, all the icons look different now the car feels new. Yeah, right. Like we moved, we heard you that the seat heater buttons are two menus too deep. And we moved them to the homescreen. Like that little stuff that sort of indicates care is small, like on the grand scheme of things, but it indicates care all the way through the stack. But I think most people, especially in a world where so many people are leasing their cars and they're basically just paying that fee built into it. You're gonna feel it over and over again. Yeah,

Dan Roth  1:19:38  
that's that's it's almost like I think of like Tesla with the way they get that immediate bump. It's almost like the positive side of demagoguery where it's just like, that directive comes from the top like we're gonna do this thing that's ridiculous, but it's gonna get as three news cycles.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:19:52  
Yeah. And the Falcon wing doors flap.

Dan Roth  1:19:55  
Right. And and there's some of that like, because they're small and because they have You know, a strong personality at the top, they can move quick and they can be nimble like that were something like the shifter with with your Jeep. You know, maybe there's reasons why it can't be done as an OT epic, and they'd love to do it. But they didn't publicize that. Well, they didn't say, you know, we'd really like to push this to you. But our technology needs you to come in and it's dangerous. Yeah, he's come in, you know that there's always that bit of opacity about, why can't you do what Tesla does? or Why can't you do what these newer car makers? Do? You guys have been building cars for 100 years? Why don't have it figured out?

Nilay Patel  1:20:33  
It should be clear, the update was when you open the door chips in the park. Like, it's not like I was there. I'm sure there's like, you know, someone for se is listening. Like, yes, I'm

Dan Roth  1:20:43  
sure there's no, we're gonna get an email. There's

Nilay Patel  1:20:44  
a fractal amount of complexity behind me saying that, but at the end of the day, what is the change they needed to make? When I open the door shifts in the park? Yeah.

Dan Roth  1:20:54  
Right. And but that's, that's a good example. I mean, I think that that is one of those safety critical things that while you typically want to wall off functions, like shifting from otaa, like, because it's so critical, is there a way to do it and if you enable it, then you wind up like creating a security holes, like I get it, and I if if we're going to get an email from from FCA, please, like, we do understand. But we also want you guys to keep trying and let us know that you're trying because then we can talk about Yeah, and we can say, you know, it's really tough and all of these things, but you know, who's gonna solve it? Apple? Do you think they're actually gonna make a car? Like I, I remain hugely skeptical that they're actually going to go into automaking? Because they don't even make their own phones?

Nilay Patel  1:21:46  
Well, I mean, that's, I think that's a little too closely. Like, you know, at the end of the day, Honda assembles the car, right, like, all the parts are made by a supplier like, yeah, I mean, I think Apple, the waves of heat around the Apple Car and the apple AR headset, are silent. And we are just at a peak of hype and interest in noise about it. The amount of is Hyundai gonna do it is key going to do it? Is VW going to do it? Like, are they going to be the manufacturing partner? I think that kind of deal makes a lot of sense for Apple, like,

Dan Roth  1:22:23  
that's been amazing to watch. Like how anytime there's a leak, it's like, no, you're out. Sick, you're done.

Nilay Patel  1:22:29  
But you know, I think some of that is is managed. Apple is a carefully managed marketing and PR shop, I think some of that is they just shut it down. And I don't think it makes sense for them to bring up their own manufacturing capability, they should absolutely just buy that capability from someone else. It's my bigger question is, are they going to make enough kinds of cars, like if they just roll out one, mid size, mid priced crossover? What did they call,

Sam Abuelsamid  1:22:59  
it'll, it'll be the same car as a mini, the mainstream one, the pro and the pro Max,

Dan Roth  1:23:06  
I guess, and none of them will have a USB port that

Sam Abuelsamid  1:23:08  
is like maybe maybe an Apple Car edition. But like ceramic body, if you just think about this,

Nilay Patel  1:23:17  
that'd be great if you have a car like scratched really easily, um, and then like, shift materials halfway through. And if you just think about the spread of cars and car prices, and the capabilities you expect, once you start spending 50 $60,000 on a car, right? Like, that's the stuff that Apple would want to put in the cheap car, right, you are expecting some self driving capability you are expecting extremely premium interior you are, that stuff gets you into a pricing zone, which is you know, a lucrative and growing pricing tier. But it also just leaves most of the market behind. Right, and I just, I can't eat like what packaging. It's a crossover SUV, right? That's what they're gonna make. Because they're presumably going to want to make an electric one. Apple's going to ship an internal combustion engine that leads you to like, basically, a Maki with a nicer interior, like if you just think about where they would have to go. And that leaves out so much of the car market. And so eventually does Apple have to make as many cars as Honda to fully own the car market. That's just a crazy place to think,

Dan Roth  1:24:25  
well, is that do you think that that's what they want to do though? When they go when they enter into a market? Do they want to dominate? Or do they want to carve out a particular amount of volume and be fine with it? Because you see, like iPhone has a lot of mindshare, but they don't necessarily have the market globally. Android owns the market. So it's I really want to see what Apple can do when they turn their design, shop loose on automotive. Because Apple designs for everything their hardware is is generally beautiful and well thought out. Sometimes they want to throw it but generally it's it's their style. behind it. And so I want to see what they can do in automotive, but they don't necessarily need to, to own volume versus, you know? Oh, I think they do

Nilay Patel  1:25:10  
I, the problem for Apple is that they have a big numbers problem. So there are a million products I think Apple should make before a car. Apple should make a TV.

Dan Roth  1:25:24  
Oh, I agree with that. Yeah, absolutely.

Nilay Patel  1:25:25  
I know what they want. They've told me what they want. They would make a TV and they would spend time sourcing panels and doing all this stuff, and then a TV as a 10 year replacement cycle. And they they just like wouldn't make enough money, like to move the needle on their enormous business. And when you compare everything to the iPhone, the only other business that moves the needle is services, which is stuff that I found on our spy.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:25:51  
Well, let me let me throw like,

Nilay Patel  1:25:53  
but I'm just saying like, if you if you put yourself in the position where you enter a regulated industry like cars, where the first time a car crashes, which it absolutely will, your brand takes a nosedive. And Tim Cook has to go in front of Congress and explain why his car like

Dan Roth  1:26:11  
all of that will happen, right? We see that with Tesla and other movies, too. It's like anytime when Evie catches on fire, it's a it's a news story. And it's Yeah, gas cars catch on fire to like it does happen.

Nilay Patel  1:26:22  
If you're gonna, if you're gonna accept all that cost, you have to think what you're gonna do is move the needle? Well, let

Sam Abuelsamid  1:26:27  
me let me throw an alternate approach. And see what you think, you know, back when the whole project Titan thing first came out 2015? You know, I wrote a bunch of articles. And I posited a concept app. And and I think it's an even more apt today, you know, as Apple has moved their business with more and more focus on that services revenue, you know, rather, because, you know, the auto industry has a lot of unique challenges that they don't face in any of their existing businesses. They, you know, you've got the problem of dealers, you know, franchise dealers, Apple's not going to want franchise dealers. So that's going to inherently limit where they can sell cars directly to consumers. And, you know, the whole idea of, you know, do they make a complete lineup of cars. Instead, you know, what, if they were to get into the robo taxi business, develop a premium Robo taxi service, you know, that, you know, has a, you know, an apple user experience in the vehicle. They can, you know, they control the vehicle. So they're not modified by consumers. They can target markets where there's an affluent customer base that's willing to pay a premium Apple price for ride hailing for automated ride hailing. And, you know, they, you know, they can have a consistent experience, they can have one vehicle that they use, you know, in places like New York and San Francisco and Chicago and Miami and LA, what do you what do you think about that kind of approach?

Nilay Patel  1:27:57  
Again, I certainly mostly, you know, like you can add Ubers business to apples business. And obviously, Uber has a different cost structure now, because there's people in the car, but it's, it's just a tiny fraction of it, I think you would have to own the entire market for cars, and the entire market for ride hailing, and then see that market grow in a way that regulatory concerns worldwide regulatory concerns, like, I just don't see them being in a business that is not premium in that way. And so like premium right hailing is like we're gonna take on the limo companies. And that is just, it's just a tiny blip compared to the potential risks and costs of that car crashing. So if they're gonna do it, I think they're going to do it in a way that they want everyone to purchase this car. And I think fundamentally, a bunch of Apple executives get in there s classes every day, and they're like, m bucks is a joke. We can do better. And there's, like, motivated to get on the electric car train, because I see a paradigm shift coming. And there'll be, you know, the earliest rumors are still 2024. Yeah, right. Like, they're gonna be on the, the end of the bleeding edge, which is where Apple likes to hit. But what what are they going to make, like, at the end of the day, you have to sell a car to a range of price points that are acceptable, it volumes that move the needle for the whole business and get Apple cell profit margins,

Sam Abuelsamid  1:29:21  
which nobody, nobody does in the auto industry, and get 30 to 40%

Nilay Patel  1:29:25  
of a margin. And that all of that is like, I don't know, I you know, what, like BMW leases more, most of its cars, they sell their cars twice. I can see Apple pursuing a strategy like that, right, where you're basically buying a subscription to a car, and they'll sell it again and like they can generate a flywheel profits. What as we've talked about self driving so much. One of the big problems for Google and for Apple is that for any self driving car to work, it needs a great map of its own. And so the entire value of carplay and android all this stuff like it starts to go to zero as the car is driving. Unless you are integrated into the car, so Google is coming at it its way. I think Apple's like, we're not going to sell our stack to people to let them run their self driving cars. They thought about it. I think we're just gonna make the whole car. It's a long way away, and I just thought first car they announce is like, honestly, like a core question for me is, is it a sedan? Is it a full size SUV? Is it a mid size crossover? Once you enter those segments, you're you're kind of optionality kind of collapses. And right now we're in the great part of the apple rumor cycle where it's just a dream. Yeah, we can all just imagine whatever we want. But like, literally, once you're like, here's how big it is. You suddenly know a lot of things about a car. Right, how big it is, and how much it costs, like you instantly know, a bunch of stuff. And I think that for Apple is as difficult as anything.

Dan Roth  1:30:51  
All right. I mean, I think that, and I probably tend to make more conservative business moves. But I mean, I think that the real opportunity for them would be to sell something like the UI or the, you know, the infotainment, you know, I, I've found, as I've been an iPhone user for a couple of years, now, I really like CarPlay, because it's consistent, and it works pretty well. That kind of opportunity where they can sell Apple UI to other automakers, they can become an OEM, and it's something that other automakers can upcharge for. So you can find that March, I don't, you're never gonna find 30% in automotive, that's insane. But, you know, that's where I would be agitating to go. That may not be I think, enough of a, of a paradigm shift. I think for Apple, they like to make a big splash. And that's just like, yeah, you can you can get our branded stuff in X, Y, or Z, or why would we support another brand? You know, and I can see that argument as well.

Nilay Patel  1:31:50  
Yeah, I mean, they, that was the rumor, right? When project Titan, which is a car project has gone through 45, rumored iterations, they spun up an entire car team, and they failed, they brought it back, and they spun up a team to be a supplier, maybe that supplier was just in car UX, maybe that supplier was an entire electric car platform, they were gonna sell the people that failed and spun down, then there was just a bunch of noise for a while. And now we're at like, key is going to build the car. You know, again, it's just a sine wave of hype of what are they going to do? How are they going to do it? We've hired 10,000 engineers, they're all aware, we fired 6000 engineers, we hired 4000, like, that is the wave of rumors around the car project. And I think they're still trying to figure out what technology they're gonna build, how they can take it to market, how they're going to move the needle, on their on their balance sheet, like, if you're Apple, and you're risking tanking your brand with a car that crashes a lot. It has to move the needle for investors. So if you're Apple, and this is, it's not gonna be a small thing when the Apple Car rolls off the line, and you're gonna have that moment. You just need to make it worth it. Whereas I think supplying, like, how long did it take for you to put CarPlay in their car? way too long.

Dan Roth  1:33:07  
I feel like just right, just this year,

Nilay Patel  1:33:09  
how long did it take Ford to realize that we should maybe just call Google like, they I think it was like four or five years ago, they were on the cusp of a Google partnership. And it failed. Yeah. Right. And

Sam Abuelsamid  1:33:20  
that was that was around using the WeMo autonomous driving system.

Nilay Patel  1:33:25  
Right? And they're like, we'll just hire our own engineers, and they'll build it. And I'm like, wait a minute. It's actually much harder than you think. Right? Right,

Dan Roth  1:33:32  
we'll just get nine women together, and we'll have a baby in a month. That's not

Nilay Patel  1:33:37  
like so I just like, fundamentally, I think all of the car companies are coming around to realizing like a owning the tech stack inside the car is really lucrative. There's all kinds of services and partnerships and advertising, you can get money, you can get recurring revenue out of a car,

Dan Roth  1:33:55  
that right now get a lot of data out of a lot of data out

Nilay Patel  1:33:57  
of a car, you can sell that data in other ways. You can use that data for all kinds of things. Right now the only really recurring revenue model for cars leasing. Right, like fundamentals. Yeah, yeah.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:34:08  
I mean, surface. But leasing generally, they tried to do that was subscriptions. And that is really, you know, that's not that hasn't worked as a business. You know, the only company that's getting getting any traction with that is Volvo with their, their system that is basically just a modified version of a lease. Yeah. So yeah, that, that recurring revenues is that's what everybody's looking for.

Nilay Patel  1:34:32  
And but if you give away the interface, your opportunities for recurring revenue go away. Right. And what I mean by leasing is recurring revenue, just to be clear is there are a lot of people in the world who are just going to pay $300 a month for the rest of their lives to have a car, right, because you're just going to trade in on leases over and over and over again. That is a huge opportunity for carmakers if they can bundle other things onto that payment. So why would you give away The most valuable things you can bundle are the interface, because that's where you can put all the stuff. Yeah. Like, why would you just hand that away to Apple? And so I think that's how Apple ended up at. We're just gonna make our own car.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:35:11  
And you know, I think that's that's one of the reasons why manufacturers are increasingly are going to Android automotive, because they're they don't have to give away the interface. You know, they've got, they're getting the underlying bits that make it all work from Google. But you know, they control the interface, you know, Volvo and Pollstar have their own UI on that FCA has got their you connect interface on top of that, and you know, Ford is probably going to do another iteration of sync on top of Android automotive. So. All right, well, I think we've taken up a bunch of your time you lied, and we know you're busy. I really want to thank you for joining us today. It's been a great conversation.

Nilay Patel  1:35:49  
We didn't know about Fox Body Mustangs, even though I thought I was doing an hour on Fox.

Dan Roth  1:35:55  
Do you want to do that you can have you stay in the chair. I

Nilay Patel  1:35:58  
will just tell you, it is my colleague, Tamra Warren. Her her big theory was that when people get older, they buy the classic cars of their teenage years, and we are FETs absolutely we are firmly in the moment where people are spending too much money on like 91 Mustang GTs.

Sam Abuelsamid  1:36:21  
For what it was ridiculous. When I graduated from college in 1990. I wanted to buy myself a new car. My shortlist was the Mitsubishi Eclipse turbo, which I knocked out quickly, five liter LX Mustang, and the Miata, which was brand new at the time, it just come out. And I decided since I was going to be driving it year round. I bought a five liter LX Mustang in 1991, five liter Lx notchback. And that was you know, I drove that for the next eight years. And three years ago, I finally bought the Miata that a 19 out of both and so she was exactly right. And nailed it.

Nilay Patel  1:36:57  
I just man they are they were cars of their moment of their time. They were just not that's all I gotta say about that.

Unknown Speaker  1:37:07  
It was quick. It was so funny cuz

Dan Roth  1:37:10  
Yeah, they consistently the Mustang has been at least from like the early 80s the Mustang was outperformed by the GM f body so the Camaro and the Firebird. Oh, yeah. Those are always better performance cars. Mustang always outsold them. Yeah,

Nilay Patel  1:37:23  
yeah, constable those fit is horrible that time like they looked real bad. Like if you go back and look at you just go look. And

Dan Roth  1:37:30  
they were Yeah, they were a little bit like, yeah, they were they had a lot of chests. It's gonna be

Nilay Patel  1:37:34  
here's what I'm getting to the place now where I can like, go back and buy a cool car. Like, I could buy an SN 95 Cobra Mustang. They're not expensive right now. Because they haven't been up by the people you know that. Like, those teams haven't grown up. When that happens when we hit that moment, like one I'll know I'm officially old. into I'll be like, these cars. like for you? Yeah,

Dan Roth  1:38:00  
it's coming for you because I'm only like, three years old. And I'm already having that. Like, I you know, I keep watching like the bring a trailer results. I'm like, What? Why would you pay that for that car? Like, it's funny. The cars like the most recent one that just made me just put my face in my palm was a Volvo V 70 are like a 2002 2003 cool car. But it went for like $28,000 that's a

Nilay Patel  1:38:29  
cool, cool bike six years ago, a Fox Body GT, you could easily get a nice one for like, 8000. And like, Yeah,

Dan Roth  1:38:35  
no, not really,

Nilay Patel  1:38:36  
like, don't do that.

Dan Roth  1:38:37  
And they're not good. You're right. They're not good. They're fun cars. They're not great cars, like, you can have a lot of fun with them. But when you when your purchase price is it better be like perfect for $28,000 because that's what's gonna cost you to restore one. But if, if you're paying that for a basket case, you're doing it.

Nilay Patel  1:38:54  
Yeah, I mean, I'm saying this as a Mustang person, like a guy who loves Mustangs and the Mustang will definitely own it. Just let it just watch the music videos and just like move on.

Dan Roth  1:39:07  
Yeah, it's the same. Well, I appreciate the time you've spent I do look forward to being able to go to the Verizon store and get my Apple Car for $900 a month for the next two years. But yeah, no, thanks for joining us. We'll come back anytime

Nilay Patel  1:39:20  
day, man. This is great. I really enjoyed it.

Unknown Speaker  1:39:21  
Thanks

Dan Roth  1:39:24  
for thanks, everybody for listening. That is Episode 185. And we'll see you again real soon.

Thanks for listening to wheel bearings. Hey, we love to listen to our listeners to drop us an email to feedback at wheel bearings dot media with your thoughts, questions or conversation starters. That's feedback at wheel bearings dot media. You can also find us on Twitter at wheel bearings cast. Don't use any vowels except for The a in cast. So that's WHLBR NGS cast. Thanks again. We hope to hear from you soon

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